We don't want an author.;
test long
Dated: July 28 2023
Views: 106
By Jade Goodhue
The economy and the real estate market have proved surprisingly resilient despite the banking crisis, rate hikes, and the debt ceiling. While that resilience hasn’t eliminated the chance of a recession, it’s definitely pushed back against the odds of having a recession this year. We continue to see issues with housing supply which is a multifaceted phenomenon so that’s not going away anytime soon. The good news it’s that supporting housing prices, however, we still need to watch out for a housing price correction. Note I didn’t say a housing recession but rather a correction, which is very different from an economic recession.
What’s Going On in the Economy?
There are mixed messages in the market:
On one hand, we have steadily declining inflation and a strong labor market.
On the other hand, we have negative wage growth, depleting savings, risking credit card delinquencies, and consumers in all income brackets spending less.
While anything can happen to cause our economy to deteriorate rapidly in the coming months, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, a 1 in 3 chance of a recession this year, but that rises to “uncomfortably high” odds of 50/50 in 2024. Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, told CNN. “We’ve never had a recession when the labor market was running this hot. In fact, it would be absurd to use the r-word at a time when we’re creating jobs at this rate.” The most obvious wildcard is the lagging effects of the Federal Reserve’s Campaign Against Inflation. What it’s going to come down to is the resilience of the American people.
Real Estate - Supply
Foreclosures
While delinquencies in auto loans and credit cards are rising, our mortgage industry is still very strong thanks to tightening lending standards that started at the end of last year, and even more so now after the banking failures earlier this year. While we’re still at historical lows in foreclosure filings, ATTOM, a curator of real estate data, showed in its Midyear 2023 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report a total of 185,580 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings (default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions) in the first six months of 2023. That figure is up 13% from the same time period a year ago.
However, we’re nowhere near the foreclosure levels we saw during the Housing Crisis which crushed our real estate market. Of course, anything can happen, the biggest threat would be the rise in unemployment, however, the chances of another foreclosure crisis are exceptionally low thanks to tighter lending standards.
New Residential Construction
Recent data from the US Census Bureau shows that we won’t be receiving relief to our supply issue from new construction for at least about a year. Building permits, and authorization for the construction of a unit, lead to starts which is when excavation begins for the foundation of a residential structure. Starts of course lead to completions.
According to the US Census Bureau:
Building Permits for privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,440,000. This is 3.7% below the revised May rate of 1,496,000 and 15.3% below the June 2022 rate of 1,701,000.
Housing starts of privately‐owned housing starts in June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,434,000. This is 8.0% below the revised May estimate of 1,559,000 (±10.3%) and 8.1% below the June 2022 rate of 1,561,000 (±9.2%).
Housing completions of privately‐owned housing completions in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,468,000. This is 3.3% below the revised May estimate of 1,518,000 (±9.7%) but is 5.5% above the June 2022 rate of 1,392,000 (±11.0 percent).
As you can see from the graph below, as with foreclosures, we’ve nowhere near the level of starts (much less completions) as we were prior to the 2008 Housing Crisis. Homebuilders continue to add to that supply, but years of meager homebuilding over the past business cycle means the imbalance will likely continue for some time.
New Listings of Single-Family Homes in Walworth County
While we saw a dip in the number of new listings last month, we saw the number of active listings increase which typically means that homes that were already on the market are sitting longer on the market. This could be due to waning demand, homes being over prices, or a bit of both.
Another proxy for housing availability is housing turnover. According to Redfin, only 1% of the nation’s homes have changed hands this year which is the lowest share in at least a decade. A Redfin analysis showed housing turnover is down 28% comparing the first 6 months of 2023 with the first 6 months of 2019 across different home and neighborhood types. That means prospective homebuyers have 28% fewer homes to choose from than they did prior to the pandemic.
The homebuying boom of late 2020 and 2021, driven by record-low mortgage rates, remote work, and a surge in investor purchases, depleted already low inventory levels. Finally, 2022’s soaring mortgage rates–average rates nearly doubled from January to June–exacerbated the shortage by handcuffing homeowners to their comparatively low rates.
How Does Interest Rates & Lock-In-Effect Affect the Market?
Speaking of interest rates, as of July were at 6.78% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the united states, compared to about 5.3% in July 2022, and about 2.78% in July 2021.
According to Taylor Marr, Deputy Chief Economist on the Research Team at Redfin, more than 4 out of 5 existing mortgage holders have a rate that’s well below 5%. They are locked into that lower rate, hence the term lock-in effect.
But it’s not just the lock-in effect, we’re feeling the after-effects of the pandemic on the housing market. A lot of people moved during the pandemic. A lot of moves were “pulled forward,” demand was pulled forward, and people listing their homes for sale were pulled forward. According to Marr, 3 out of 5 which is more than half of households, have moved within the last four years.
Absorption Rate
If no more homes were listed on the market right NOW, the absorption rate would be how many months it would take for the current demand to absorb the available supply. If we’re above 4 months we’re in a balanced market and above 6 months we’re in a buyer's market. Being that we’re below 4, we’re still in a seller's market. Right now this number is skewed, we’re not nearing a balanced market, and waning demand from higher interest rates is creating the FEEL of an artificially balanced market. We have limited supply but also limited demand as homeowners struggle with higher interest rates.
Real Estate - Demand
This is where consumer spending and delaying big purchases, which I mentioned in my article on the Economic Forecast, comes full circle. We still have strong days on the market, but not as robust as this time last year. If this number goes above 50 and continues an upward trend as we go into the fall and winter months, we’ll likely see a price correction. That’s because longer days on the market puts downward pressure on prices. But pent-up demand and cash buyers will keep housing prices afloat.
Real Estate - Housing Prices
According to ATTOM data, median single-family home and condo prices increased from the 1st to the 2nd quarter of 2023 in 150 (96%) of the 156 metro areas around the country with enough data to analyze and were up annually in 94 of those metros (60%).
The blue columns represent the median prices of US single-family homes and condos and the green line represents annual price appreciation. Lack of supply is keeping prices firm.
Corelogic provides a table of the year-over-year percent change by state as of May 2023. As you can see, prices in the state of Wisconsin on a whole grew about 5-7%.
The fact that housing prices continue to show stronger growth than what was previously expected given the suddenness and significant magnitude of mortgage rate increases is a testament to the underlying resilience of the economy. All things being equal, we do expect housing will be supportive of the overall economy as it exits the modest recession.
Home income price vs income growth
The challenge is affordability. The chart below shows a comparison between Walworth County’s median home price vs. its median household income also shows decreasing housing affordability. The median home price is growing much faster than the median household income.
In addition to the shortage of residential units in Walworth County, in particular, there’s a more prominent shortage of the types of homes that would be considered starter homes. Home sales prices for the least-expensive quartile of homes are increasing at a faster rate compared to more expensive homes. Furthermore, affordable owner-occupied homes have a much lower months’ inventory of homes than the rest of the market, indicating that the supply of affordable owner-occupied housing is falling short of meeting demand.
WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN TO BOOST TURNOVER AND AFFORDABILITY?
It’s not just one quick fix, but a combination of factors and reforms:
Mortgage rates dropping closer to 5% would make the biggest dent in the affordability crisis by freeing up some inventory and bringing monthly payments down.
Building more housing is imperative, and federal and local governments can help by reforming zoning and making the building process easier.
Financial incentives, like reducing transfer taxes for home sellers and subsidizing major moves with tax breaks, would also add to the supply.
Impact Fees
On June 12th, the Lake Geneva City Council adopted an ordinance that raised the total amount of City impact fees imposed on people who build a home from $3,785 per residential unit to $10,859 per residential unit – an increase of $7,074.
In other words, the new City of Lake Geneva ordinance raises the cost of a new home by $7,074 in the first year alone. This is not counting the proposed automatic fee increases in each subsequent year, and also not counting the next round of fee increases that the City officials are reportedly planning.
People who live in new homes typically pay a substantial amount of property taxes. It was noted at the public hearing that it may be unwise to increase impact fees so substantially without first considering the overall effect on future revenue for the city of Lake Geneva. It could further reduce the amount of new home construction, and thus property taxes that otherwise would have been paid by people living in new homes will instead be paid by people living in existing homes within the city.
According to representatives of the Lakes Area Realtor Association at the hearing, “rather than the usual process of first holding a public hearing and then voting on a proposed ordinance at the next City Council meeting, which allows time for serious consideration of questions and concerns that are raised at the public hearing, City Council president Mary Jo Fesenmaier requested to suspend the rules and vote on the fee increases immediately.” That’s not odd at all…
Sold to List Price Ratio
Last month I mentioned that I suspected the drop in May was an anomaly and it would go up in the next month. Right on cue it did. Given the market, this will hover around or below 100% in the near term. It may rise if interest rates stabilize but may drop more than usual if the market corrects during the months that are already seasonally lower.
Bottom Line for Buyers and Sellers
For Sellers
If you want to sell for top dollar, this is still a good time to sell.
If you don’t have a place yet to move, you’re going to want to find that next forever home and get it under contract before you list.
If it’s in your budget, spend the time and money to take care of those mechanical and cosmetic repairs that are obvious to the naked eye.
<span style="font-family: arial
- hi!!
Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as of September 14, 2026 2:34 PM UTC This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties you may be interested in purchasing. Display of MLS data is usually deemed reliable but is NOT guaranteed accurate by the MLS. Buyers are responsible for verifying the accuracy of all information and should investigate the data themselves or retain appropriate professionals. Information from sources other than the Listing Agent may have been included in the MLS data. Unless otherwise specified in writing, Broker/Agent has not and will not verify any information obtained from other sources. The Broker/Agent providing the information contained herein may or may not have been the Listing and/or Selling Agent.
This information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. You should rely on this information only to decide whether or not to further investigate a particular property. BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER DECISION, YOU SHOULD PERSONALLY INVESTIGATE THE FACTS (e.g.square footage and lot size) with the assistance of an appropriate professional. You may use this information only to identify properties you may be interested in investigating further. All uses except for personal, non-commercial use in accordance with
The data relating to real estate for sale on this website comes in part from the IDX Program of Garden State Multiple Listing Service, L.L.C. and TESTING. Real estate listings held by other brokerage firms are marked as IDX listing. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Copyright © 2026 Garden State Multiple Listing Service, L.L.C. All rights reserved. This information is being provided for Consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify
Emerald Coast Association of REALTORS®, Inc. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers
All measurements and all calculations of area are approximate. Information provided by Seller/Other sources, not verified by Broker. All interested persons should independently verify accuracy of information. Provided properties may or may not be listed by the office/agent presenting the information. Data maintained by MetroList© may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
All real estate content on this site is subject to the Federal Fair Housing Act of 1968, as amended, which makes it illegal to advertise any preference, limitation or discrimination because of race, color, religion, sex, handicap, family status or national origin or an intention to make any such preference, limitation or discrimination.
MetroList CA data last updated: September 14, 2026 2:17 PM UTC 
©2026 Georgia Multiple Listing Service All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may
The data relating to real estate for sale or rent on this web site comes in part from the IDX program of the Hudson County MLS. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than TESTING are marked with the HCIDX mark and the information about them includes the name of the listing broker. The information provided by this website is for the personal, non-commercial use of consumers and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in
MIBOR REALTOR® Association All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. The data relating to real estate for sale on this website comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange program of the Multiple Listing Service. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than TESTING may be marked with the Internet Data Exchange logo and detailed information about those properties will include the name of the listing broker(s) when required by the MLS. Copyright ©2026 All rights reserved.
Last Updated: September 14, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
Based on information from California Desert Association of Realtors as of September 14, 2026 2:33 PM UTC The information being provided by California Desert Association of Realtors, SoCalMLS, CRISNet MLS, and CARETS is for the consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumer may be interested in purchasing. Any information relating to real estate for sale referenced on this web site comes from the Internet Data Exchange
Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS® All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers
Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be
Based on information from CRISNet MLS as of September 14, 2026 2:20 PM UTC All data, including all measurements and calculations of area, is obtained from various sources and has not been, and will not be, verified by broker or MLS. All information should be independently reviewed and verified for accuracy. Properties may or may not be listed by the office/agent presenting the information. The listing broker's offer of compensation is made only to participants of the MLS where the listing is filed.
The MLS™ Combined LA/Westside MLS® (CLAW): All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers
MLS Notice/Fair Housing: Properties & rentals in this MLS are subject to the Fair Housing Act. It is illegal to advertise any preference, limitation, or discrimination because of race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status, or national origin, or intention to make any such preference, limitation or discrimination. This MLS will not knowingly accept any advertising that is in violation of the law. All dwellings advertised are available on an equal opportunity basis. The information provided
All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. The data relating
All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. The data relating
OneKey® MLS required Copyright, Source of Data and Disclaimer for IDX display
Information Copyright 2026, OneKey® MLS. All Rights Reserved.
The source of the displayed data is either the property owner or public record provided by non-governmental third parties. It is believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. This information is provided exclusively for consumers' personal, non-commercial use.
The data relating to real estate for sale on this website comes in part from the
All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. The data relating
